Is it too early to get rich from Crossrail 2?

Crossrail 2, a high speed railway scheme connecting north and south London is the next stop in the journey to make the capital more accessible to more people with shorter journey times. 

Despite protestations from some residents in places such as Chelsea and Wimbledon, who oppose the level of disruption which accompanies major infrastructure work, it’s gathering political support. Mayor of London Boris Johnson and MP Zac Goldsmith have claimed that the £27 billion project will result in 200,000 new homes and create 200,000 new jobs. 

But when will the transport programme, which has not yet been given the green light, start to drive up house prices along the proposed line, and where will the smart money buy?  

Use our interactive graphic to find out house prices in the 750m around a proposed Crossrail 2 station, and how much values have moved there already, due to momentum in the London market and Crossrail chatter. Data supplied by Knight Frank / Land Registry.

Learning from the Lizard

Although still two to three years away from completion, its predecessor, Crossrail (1) – now called the Elizabeth Line and informally dubbed the Lizard – is already estimated to have added £5.5 billion to property values along its route. 

“House prices within 750m of stations on the Elizabeth Line have outperformed the wider Local Authority markets by an average of five per cent since the line was granted Royal Assent in the summer of 2008, despite the fact it will not open fully for another two to three years,” says Grainne Gilmore, head of residential research at Knight Frank.  “Some stations have outperformed by as much as 40 per cent and values have been boosted not only by the improvement in connectivity which will be provided by the line, but also in many cases regeneration.”

Crossrail 2: Stage 1

These are all positive signs for homeowners who live along the proposed Crossrail 2 route, which is expected to connect the National Rail networks in Surrey and Hertfordshire via new tunnels and stations between Wimbledon, Tottenham Hale and New Southgate. It will link up to the London Underground, Overground and Crossrail 1.

Speculators of the sequel are already getting in on the action – or at least buying into the noise and momentum that occurs before a financial and political commitment is made.

“Big infrastructure requires cross party support. Ultimately central governments spanning more than one political lifetime must reaffirm earlier commitments made,” says Adam Challis, head of residential research at JLL. “But relevant areas will get an early uplift from speculators well before that 100 per cent guarantee is given. Activity is already happening.” 

Challis is referring to those purchasing land, that they will then sit on until the time is right to offer it to housebuilders and developers at a profit. 

Buy-to-let investors are also banking on massive capital appreciation over the next few years, as the sound of lobbying reaches a crescendo. “We are smack in the middle of phase one,” says Challis. “These deals are being done off the back of notional investment. Even if Crossrail 2 doesn’t come off, there is value in the land anyway.”

 

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